On January 19, 2022, the President of the United States made a statement saying that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine and he also warned the Russian President, Vladimir Putin of the consequences that will follow.
Russia has been deploying 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border for the past few months. Russia began the amassing of these troops in Belarus, a country that borders both Russia and Ukraine in mid-January to prepare for the joint military exercises. Vladimir Putin has put forward a few demands before he will withdraw all the troops. The demands include a ban on the entry of Ukraine to NATO and an agreement that states that NATO will remove the troops and all weaponry from Eastern Europe.
This is not the first time that Russia has threatened to invade another country as they invaded Crimea in 2014. Here is a little bit of information on Ukraine, the complex nation with layered history.
Ukraine got independence after the Soviet Union fell thirty years ago. The nation has struggled internally to eradicate corruption and bridge the deeply rooted internal divisions.
The western part of the country has been in favour of integration with Western Europe while the Eastern part has leaned towards Russia. Tensions between Ukraine and Russia rose in February 2014 when some violent protestors ousted the then President of Ukraine who was pro-Russia, Viktor Yanukovych. This incident came to be known as the Revolution of Dignity.
During the same time, Russia invaded Crimea putting Ukraine in a vulnerable position for self-defence. Vladimir Putin immediately struck the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine. The conflict between the Russia-backed separatists and the government of Ukraine killed over 14000 people in 2014.
Although the Crimean invasion was owned by Russia, the nation still denies its involvement in the Donbas region to this day. After the invasion of Crimea and the show of military aggression by Russia, the people of Ukraine are leaning more towards Western integration now. The government of Ukraine had said that it will apply for European Membership in the year 2024 and may also join NATO. The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy who came to power in 2019 campaigned strongly on the grounds of anti-corruption, economic renewal of the nation, and ensuring peace in Donbas.
Vladimir Putin views Ukraine as Russia’s sphere of influence, more of territory than a state. This has led to the trying of blocking Ukraine from the EU and Nato by the Kremlin. He is also using the nation as his leverage for Western powers to lift the sanctions. The US has some political and financial sanctions in place against Russia. An attack on Ukraine by Russia could push the diplomatic conversations upfront leading to the lifting up of the sanctions.
