In a historic development, India’s nuclear arsenal has, for the first time in 25 years, surpassed that of Pakistan, according to a recent report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The report estimates that India now possesses 172 nuclear warheads, compared to Pakistan’s 170.
The report also highlights a notable shift in China’s nuclear strategy, with China placing its nuclear weapons on high operational alert. This means China’s nuclear weapons are now ready for rapid deployment using long-range missiles, reflecting a significant enhancement in their strategic capabilities.
India, too, appears to be making strategic adjustments to its nuclear posture. Traditionally, India has kept its nuclear warheads and their launchers separate, maintaining a clear distinction between the two to prevent accidental launches and to uphold a policy of no first use. However, recent developments indicate a shift towards a more integrated approach. The deployment of missiles in canisters and the initiation of sea-based deterrence patrols suggest that India is moving towards a ready-to-launch posture, integrating some of its nuclear warheads with their respective launch platforms even during peacetime.
India’s nuclear delivery capabilities are diverse, including aircraft, land-based ballistic missiles, and submarine-launched missiles. Over the past year, India’s nuclear stockpile has grown by eight warheads, up from 164 in the previous year. In contrast, Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile has remained unchanged. Since 2014, when India’s arsenal was estimated at 100 warheads, there has been a concerted effort to close the gap with Pakistan, resulting in India’s current numerical advantage.
The SIPRI report underscores that this is the first time since 1999 that India’s nuclear arsenal has been assessed to be larger than Pakistan’s. This shift marks a significant milestone in the regional power dynamics of South Asia.
Moreover, the report indicates that China’s nuclear arsenal is the fastest-growing in the world. China has increased its nuclear stockpile from 410 warheads in 2023 to 500 in the current year. For the first time, China is also believed to be deploying a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime, marking a strategic shift towards greater readiness.
The growing nuclear capabilities of India and China, along with the steady state of Pakistan’s arsenal, highlight the evolving security landscape in Asia. These developments are significant not only for the region but also for global nuclear stability. The advancements suggest a regional arms race that could have far-reaching implications for international peace and security.
India’s strategic shift towards a more integrated nuclear posture aligns with its broader defense modernization efforts. The country has been enhancing its missile capabilities and expanding its naval strength to support a credible second-strike capability. The induction of nuclear-powered submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles underscores India’s commitment to maintaining a robust deterrence strategy.
In conclusion, the SIPRI report provides a detailed overview of the changing nuclear dynamics in Asia. With India surpassing Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal for the first time in a quarter-century and China rapidly expanding its capabilities, the region is witnessing a significant shift in its strategic balance. These developments necessitate careful monitoring and dialogue among the nuclear-armed states to prevent escalation and ensure stability.
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